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"Lou is not talking about mechanics when he goes out to the mound,"
~Chicago Cubs pitching coach Larry Rothschild

Thursday, April 20, 2006

Over/Underperforming Teams

Back in the 70's Bill James created what he calls the Pythagorean Expectation Theory. It's simply a formula using runs scored and runs allowed to predict how many games a team should have won over the season. The theorum is good for evaluating which teams are currently over performing or underperforming based on their expected win total.

I know it's still early, but I figured I'd go ahead and run the numbers to find out just that. Listed below is the difference between each teams actual wins and expected number of wins. A positive number indicates a team is overperforming while a negative number indicates a team is underperforming. For example, San Francisco has won 2.61 more games than their runs scored/runs allowed suggest they should have won.

SF (2.61)
Bos (1.76)
Hou (1.51)
Cin (1.43)
Balt (1.17)
Oak (1.07)
Phi (0.84)
CWS (0.84)
TB (0.81)
NYM (0.75)
Milw (0.70)
LAA (0.40)
StL (0.27)
ChC (0.16)
Col (0.14)
Minn (-0.04)
Clev (-0.35)
KC (-0.48)
Tor (-0.52)
SD (-0.58)
Atl (-0.63)
Det (-0.75)
Was (-0.81)
Sea (-0.90)
Tex (-1.19)
Ari (-1.50)
Pitt (-1.59)
LAD (-1.62)
Fla (-2.21)
NYY (-2.25)

For more on the Pythagorean Expectation Theorum, check out this site.

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